Toronto condo market report: the GTA's two-speed pre-construction pricing

TRREB and CMHC track resale sales and housing starts. Neither tracks what's actually happening inside the Toronto condo market's pre-construction pipeline, where 69% of everything ever listed in Ontario is already sold out, and pricing is cooling hard in exactly two cities while holding everywhere else. We pulled our own inventory data to find out where.

Key findings

• 69% of Ontario's pre-construction pipeline is already sold out, five points above the national average, so the visible for-sale market is a fraction of what has been built or announced.
• The cooling is concentrated, not region-wide. Markham, Mississauga, and Vaughan each posted two of the province's 15 largest year-over-year price corrections; one Markham project fell 44%, the steepest in the sample.
• Brampton and Oakville show no major corrections at all, and pricing in the most sold-out cities is largely holding.
• Toronto is the priciest market at just under $1,000 per square foot, more than double Brampton's $472, the most affordable entry point in the GTA.
• Mississauga and Markham have the most inventory still actively selling (32% and 30%), the most negotiating room for buyers right now.

The headline numbers

Across Ontario's pre-construction pipeline, 69% of everything ever listed is already sold out (2,828 total tracked listings, 726 still selling, 1,946 sold out), 5 points above the national average of 64%. The average price per square foot across the pipeline is $671.59.

For context, TRREB's June 2026 Market Watch put the GTA's average RESALE selling price (all property types, not pre-construction, not condo-specific) at $1,058,658, a different market entirely from what follows. CMHC reported Toronto CMA housing starts down 12% year over year as of May 2026, fewer new projects breaking ground even as so much of the existing pipeline is already spoken for. That's the backdrop for this report: the pre-construction market isn't short on buyers. It's short on the specific homes buyers still want, in the specific cities where they want them.

The market is more sold out than most people realize

Ontario is the largest pre-construction market we track, home to most of the country's active and completed pipeline. Within Ontario specifically, 69% of everything ever listed has already sold out, meaning the visible “for sale” market most buyers are shopping is a fraction of what's actually been built or announced.

That sold-out share isn't even across the region:

Brampton and Vaughan are the most sold-through markets in our sample, at 80% and 75%. Markham and Mississauga sit at the other end, both around 65%, meaning roughly a third of everything ever listed in those two cities is still actively competing for a buyer today.

That gap turns out to matter a lot for price.

Where prices are actually cooling (and where they aren't)

We pulled the 15 largest year-over-year price corrections across every active pre-construction project in Ontario, then mapped them back to the cities above. We're not naming individual projects here (a handful of listings don't tell you much about a city, and this isn't a name-and-shame list). What the pattern shows, city by city, is the real story, and it's the story TRREB and CMHC can't tell because neither tracks pre-construction pricing at all.

Markham and Mississauga account for 4 of the 15 largest corrections in the province, with one Markham project alone down 44% year over year, the single largest decline in our sample. Vaughan adds two more corrections of its own and is pulled out separately below. Every other city in our correction list, Caledon, Toronto, Oshawa, Pelham, Clarington, Kleinburg, Ajax, Brant, and Burlington, appears once.

Toronto, Brampton, and Oakville, all three-quarters or more sold out, show almost no presence on the correction list.

Line these findings up and a pattern falls out that a single “GTA prices are down” headline would miss entirely: Markham and Mississauga carry the most live, still-selling inventory of any city in our sample, the two lowest sold-out shares of the six, and are tied with Vaughan for the most represented on the correction list. What separates them is what else is true: Markham and Mississauga are also the two cities with the most live supply left to sell. Vaughan isn't, and that's the pattern it breaks: it's 75% sold out, nearly as sold-through as Brampton, yet still produced two of the province's largest corrections, evidence that pricing pressure can hit a market's last remaining inventory even after most of it has sold. It reads less like a cooling market and more like builders clearing the last units in specific projects to close them out, worth watching project by project rather than assuming a citywide trend.

This isn't a uniform correction. Most of the softening is concentrated in Markham and Mississauga specifically, with Vaughan as a genuine exception, while the rest of the sold-through markets are holding their pricing.

The corrections also vary in depth, not just in how often a city shows up. Markham's two span the widest gap in the province, from roughly 18% down to nearly 44% year over year, the steepest single decline in the sample. Mississauga's two sit close together, both around 24% to 25%. Vaughan's land in between, roughly 21% to 24%. Across all 15 of the province's largest corrections the declines run from about 16% to 44%, so even at the sharp end this reads as specific projects repricing, not a market in freefall.

Average price per square foot, city by city

Toronto remains the most expensive market in the region by a wide margin, averaging just under $1,000 per square foot, more than double Brampton's average of $472. For buyers priced out of the downtown core, Brampton offers the most affordable entry point into pre-construction in the GTA, and notably, it doesn't show up in the correction data above, the closest thing to a stable read in this sample.

What's actually available to buy right now

Sold-out share tells you how much of a city's pipeline is already gone. The number that matters when you are actually shopping is the flip side: how much is still actively selling. The spread there is just as wide.

Mississauga and Markham lead on availability, with 32% and 30% of their tracked pipeline still actively selling, the most open inventory of the six cities. Vaughan sits at the bottom at 16%, with Brampton just above at 17%, both largely spoken for. In raw unit terms Toronto has the most on the market, roughly 140 homes actively selling, simply because it is by far the largest market; Mississauga has around 28. It is not a coincidence that the two cities with the most left to sell, Mississauga and Markham, are also among the most corrected. Vaughan is the exception, nearly sold out yet still posting two corrections, which is why we pull it out separately. More inventory competing for the same buyers is where pricing pressure tends to surface first.

How Ontario fits into the national picture

Ontario is the center of gravity for Canadian pre-construction. Of the roughly 4,980 projects we track across the country, about 2,830, more than half, sit in Ontario. And Ontario's pipeline is tighter than the national average: 69% sold out versus 64% across Canada, with just 26% still actively selling versus 32% nationally. Buyers here are working with proportionally less choice than buyers in the rest of the country.

Price runs the other way. Measured across all tracked inventory nationally, Ontario's median price per square foot sits around $556, well under British Columbia's $823, even though Ontario holds the large majority of the country's tracked condo units. These are national, all-inventory medians, a broader and different measure than the recent Greater Toronto pipeline averages elsewhere in this report. The two describe different populations and are not directly comparable, so read this as national context rather than a restatement of the GTA figures above.

Even within Ontario, the price story is really Toronto's, and even Toronto is not one market. On a national median basis the Toronto figure sits around $896 per square foot, but two submarkets the platform tracks separately run higher still: North York near $1,023 and Etobicoke near $1,098. Both are among the very few Ontario markets expensive enough to rank on Canada's national median-price leaderboard, a reminder that Toronto pricing is a set of distinct micro-markets, not a single line.

Why pre-construction moves on different signals than the resale headlines

When a headline says Toronto home prices rose or fell, it almost always means resale: existing homes that changed hands last month, tracked by TRREB. Pre-construction is a different animal. A buyer is agreeing today on a price for a home that may not exist for three or four years, so the number moves on different levers, deposit structures, builder incentives, assignment activity, and how much competing inventory a builder is trying to clear, not on last month's closings.

That is why this report can show pricing softening in Markham while the resale headlines look flat: the two markets rarely move in lockstep. Our guide to how new-build and resale pricing diverge covers why, and where the gap tends to open up.

What this means if you're buying

• If you're watching Markham or Mississauga, these two carried the most live, still-competing inventory in our sample and together accounted for 4 of the region's largest price corrections this year, the most negotiating room in this data set.
• If you're watching Vaughan, treat it separately. It's 75% sold out, nearly as sold-through as Brampton, yet still posted two of the province's biggest corrections, worth a closer look project by project rather than assuming the broader city trend applies.
• If you're set on Toronto or Oakville, don't expect the same softness. Both markets are majority sold out with almost no presence on the correction list, the steadiest pricing in this sample so far in 2026.
• If affordability is the priority, Brampton combines the lowest average price per square foot in our sample with the highest sold-out share.

See what's currently available in Toronto, Markham, or any of the six GTA markets in this report. For the buying process itself, our pre-construction buying guide, deposit guide, and financing guide cover what to expect before you sign.

What this means if you're investing

Absorption and price aren't moving in the same direction everywhere, and that's the more useful read than a single regional average, or than TRREB's all-property resale figure and CMHC's starts count, neither of which is pre-construction-specific. A project in a 65%-sold-out city carries different pricing risk than one in an 80%-sold-out city, even at a similar price point today. In this sample, Markham and Mississauga carry the most remaining live supply and are tied with Vaughan for the most represented in this year's price corrections, the live-supply overlap is what makes them a clean pair. Vaughan is the exception worth underwriting carefully: high sell-through and real corrections at the same time, a pattern the other five cities in this sample didn't show.

Our investment guide, closing costs breakdown, interim occupancy guide, assignment guide, and new-build vs. resale comparison cover the mechanics that matter once you've picked a market.

The bottom line

Strip it down and the Greater Toronto pre-construction market in 2026 is not one story but two. Most of the region is deeply sold through, 69% across Ontario, and the two cities with no major corrections in our sample, Brampton and Oakville, are holding their pricing. The softness is concentrated where live inventory is highest, in Markham and Mississauga, with Vaughan as the one city that is heavily sold out and still correcting. For a buyer, the headline to ignore is 'GTA prices are up' or 'GTA prices are down.' Both are true somewhere in this data, and the only version that helps you is the city, and increasingly the project, you are actually looking at.

Methodology

All figures are pulled directly from Buildify's internal pre-construction tracking database, the largest first-party pre-construction inventory dataset in Canada, covering roughly 5,000 active and completed projects nationally, filtered to Ontario and cross-referenced against the 6 largest Greater Toronto Area pre-construction markets by tracked listing volume. Price-per-square-foot figures are the average across each city's tracked listings over the trailing 12 months (2025-07-08 to 2026-07-07). Individual project names are withheld from city-level correction data by design; this report describes market patterns, not project-level pricing decisions.

External context figures (TRREB's GTA resale average, CMHC's housing-starts data) are cited for market context only and use a different basis than the pre-construction figures above (resale sales and housing starts respectively, not pre-construction inventory); they are never blended into this report's own numbers. Data pulled July 2026, refreshed quarterly.

How to cite this report: Developments.ca, “Toronto Condo Market Report 2026: The GTA's Two-Speed Pre-Construction Pricing,” developments.ca/news/toronto-condo-market-report-2026. Data may be quoted with attribution and a link to this page.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Toronto condo market cooling in 2026? Not uniformly, and the answer depends on which market you mean. TRREB's resale data and CMHC's starts data don't break out pre-construction pricing at all. Our own pre-construction pipeline data shows most of the region already sold out (69% in Ontario), with pricing holding in sold-through markets like Toronto, Brampton, and Oakville. The cooling is concentrated mainly in Markham and Mississauga, the two cities carrying the most live, still-selling pre-construction inventory in our sample.

Where are pre-construction condo prices falling the most in the GTA? Markham and Mississauga account for 4 of the 15 largest year-over-year price corrections tracked across Ontario's pre-construction pipeline in 2026, including the single largest decline in our sample, a Markham project down 44%.

What about Vaughan? It's mostly sold out, why is it still correcting? Vaughan is the one city in our sample that doesn't fit the broader pattern. It's 75% sold out, nearly as sold-through as Brampton, yet still produced two of the province's largest price corrections. That combination didn't show up anywhere else in our data, and likely reflects pricing on the last remaining units in specific projects rather than a citywide trend.

What's the most affordable city for pre-construction condos in the GTA? Brampton, averaging $472 per square foot across tracked listings, the lowest of the 6 major GTA cities in this report.

What's the most expensive city for pre-construction condos in the GTA? Toronto, averaging just under $1,000 per square foot, more than double Brampton's average.